Energy, Transportation, and Geo-political Realities
ENERGY, TRANSPORTATION, and GEO-POLITICAL REALITIES:WILL OKLAHOMA CITY BECOME A ONE HORSE TOWN IN THE 21st CENTURY?Cheap energy has been the foundation of our economic prosperity. United States oil production peaked in 1970-71, and has been declining ever since, while oil consumption has steadily increased. Every second, the world gulps 1,000 barrels of oil. We use 25% of the world’s annual oil production – with only 6% of the world’s population. Unfortunately, the great Cheap Petroleum Party is over. The energy reality of the 21st century will be expensive gasoline, expensive diesel, and expensive electricity. Yet, Oklahoma City transportation policy is set on a cheap energy path determined in the 20th century. Government policies must be rooted in reality, not in out of date analyses or wishful thinking about what the future will bring. Transportation policies in particular, which impact directly every household, must serve the common good.
Cheap energy has been the foundation of our economic prosperity. United States oil production peaked in 1970-71, and has been declining ever since, while oil consumption has steadily increased. Every second, the world gulps 1,000 barrels of oil. We use 25% of the world’s annual oil production – with only 6% of the world’s population. Unfortunately, the great Cheap Petroleum Party is over. The energy reality of the 21 century will be expensive gasoline, expensive diesel, and expensive electricity. Yet, Oklahoma City transportation policy is set on a cheap energy path determined in the 20 century. Government policies must be rooted in reality, not in out of date analyses or wishful thinking about what the future will bring. Transportation policies in particular, which impact directly every household, must serve the common good.Some people say that Oklahoma City is a “car culture town”, and that is obviously true. The people who say this, who are usually touting a road building or repair project, or making excuses for the lack of an effective multi-modal transportation system in central Oklahoma, are suggesting that we will always, no matter what, be a “car culture town”.
Imagine this scene: Oklahoma City, 1910, State of the City speech: “Oklahoma City is a HORSE AND BUGGY TOWN and by God it will ALWAYS be a horse and buggy town, and WHO CARES if it is the 20th Century now, we like our horses and our buggies and we don’t need nothing new fangled like trolley cars or horseless carriages.”
We can certainly ride all the way to economic oblivion in SUVs over perfectly smooth roads that seem to go everywhere but into the future, if that is what we want to do. Or we can get with the 21st century, and develop – on the fast track – an effective regional transportation system that will get workers to work and shoppers to shop irrespective of the price of gasoline, the vagaries of the weather, or the good will of fascist terrorists.
An effective public transportation system for central Oklahoma will feature expanded bus service and the addition of commuter rail service that utilizes existing railroad lines and rolling stock such as Rail Diesel Cars, centered on the Union Station interchange. Deregulation of personal transportation for hire could produce other market-driven alternatives. Here are eight reasons why this should become a major imperative of Oklahoma City government.
PATRIOTIC DUTYDuty is not always everybody’s popular topic, but if we are to survive as a free and self-governing nation then citizens must voluntarily shoulder their civic duties and do what is right.
Duty is not always everybody’s popular topic, but if we are to survive as a free and self-governing nation then citizens must voluntarily shoulder their civic duties and do what is right.In regard to this issue, the President has repeatedly called upon Americans to conserve energy.
The need for serious conservation is apparent. Every year we are more dependent upon unstable authoritarian regimes for petroleum. The more oil we buy from them, the stronger they get. These Middle Eastern nations are not nice places. It is illegal for Christians or members of any religion other than Islam to worship openly in Saudi Arabia. They import large numbers of workers from Third World countries, pay them low wages, and oppress them. I have personally spoken with Christians who work in the various Gulf nations and they all tell stories of religious persecution. We send our young men and women into harm’s way in battle, while we here at home send resources to those who would kill them when we buy gasoline and diesel. We speak of supporting democracy, but our petro-dollars fund fascism. Our addiction to oil not only buys the bombs, it also creates the objective situations where this kind of terrorism can flourish.
The government of Oklahoma City has a patriotic moral duty to provide adequate public transportation so that we can do our part to conserve petroleum. It is our duty to shoulder our share of the personal responsibility of making a real and serious contribution to peace and security in this world. We the people therefore have a patriotic duty to reduce our consumption of oil, and the only practical way to do that over the short-term is to get out of our automobiles and take public transportation (or ride a bicycle or walk). Anything less than this is denial of the geo-political realities of the international market for petroleum in the 21st century.
We should follow the example of our grandparents and great-grandparents, the World War II generation. In 1941, this nation was attacked, and we the people came together in solidarity. People on the home front did their part. What is Oklahoma City’s response to the President’s call for wartime conservation of energy in 2006? A great big yawn. We think the president must be talking to everyone except for us. I guess we feel we are so special we can just ignore the President when he calls upon us to make some sacrifices. Thank God the World War II generation didn’t have our modern attitude, otherwise we would be speaking Japanese or German today. The question for Oklahoma City government is: do we or do we not support our troops? Are we willing, or are we NOT willing, to do our part for peace and security? Right now, the answer of Oklahoma City government is crystal clear. Oklahoma City is NOT willing to do its part for peace and security. We are willing to send our sons and daughters to war, but we are not willing to actually do anything here at home other than put useless bumper stickers on our SUVs and spout mindless rhetoric. We are perfectly willing to give aid and comfort to the enemies of this nation, after all, we are a “car culture town” and that, to some people, is what is important.
GEO-POLITICAL REALITIES OF THE WORLD ENERGY MARKETPLACEA second reason why Oklahoma City needs a public transportation system is because the days of cheap fossil fuels are over. There are two billion people in India and China who want cars, in fact, most of them want two or three cars. Neither of those countries produces enough oil to satisfy their domestic demand, so they are out there competing with us in the world market for energy. We have only 6% of the world’s population, yet we presently consume 25% of the world’s oil production. Price is a function of demand meeting supply, and while demand is escalating everywhere, production isn’t. In fact, production of conventional petroleum is declining in 33 of the 48 oil producing nations (International Energy Agency, World Oil Outlook 2004). World discoveries of petroleum peaked in the 1960s, the production peak will inevitably follow. After that, world oil production will begin to decline, and that is a geologic reality that no amount of political rhetoric can finesse or evade.
A second reason why Oklahoma City needs a public transportation system is because the days of cheap fossil fuels are over. There are two billion people in India and China who want cars, in fact, most of them want two or three cars. Neither of those countries produces enough oil to satisfy their domestic demand, so they are out there competing with us in the world market for energy. We have only 6% of the world’s population, yet we presently consume 25% of the world’s oil production. Price is a function of demand meeting supply, and while demand is escalating everywhere, production isn’t. In fact, production of conventional petroleum is declining in 33 of the 48 oil producing nations (International Energy Agency, World Oil Outlook 2004). World discoveries of petroleum peaked in the 1960s, the production peak will inevitably follow. After that, world oil production will begin to decline, and that is a geologic reality that no amount of political rhetoric can finesse or evade.Every gallon of gasoline we buy exports money. Money that is exported from our local economy isn’t available to create more prosperity here at home. It’s gone off somewhere else to create prosperity over there. The more we spend on gasoline and diesel, the more money we export, the less money there is for the local economy. The less money we spend on gasoline and diesel, the less money we export, the more money we have here in our local economy. Government expenditures for the public transportation component of a multi-modal transportation system stay in the local economy in the form of investments in infrastructure, operations expenses, and wages.
PUBLIC BENEFIT AND THE COMMON GOODAn effective multi-modal transportation system would provide enormous benefits to everyone in Oklahoma City. Households could avoid the expense of a second car, or of a car altogether, by taking advantage of the public transportation system. The potential savings for families taking advantage of public transportation amount to thousands of dollars per year, once all costs of buying and maintaining an automobile are considered. Families could spend those thousands of dollars of transportation on other items, or save and invest for future benefit. In cities with adequate public transportation services, many middle class families wisely steward their resources by maintaining only one car, while households with less income are able to survive and even prosper without owning a car at all. Public transportation provides families with choices, and the more choices a community can offer families, the more attractive the area is as a place to live and do business.
An effective multi-modal transportation system would provide enormous benefits to everyone in Oklahoma City. Households could avoid the expense of a second car, or of a car altogether, by taking advantage of the public transportation system. The potential savings for families taking advantage of public transportation amount to thousands of dollars per year, once all costs of buying and maintaining an automobile are considered. Families could spend those thousands of dollars of transportation on other items, or save and invest for future benefit. In cities with adequate public transportation services, many middle class families wisely steward their resources by maintaining only one car, while households with less income are able to survive and even prosper without owning a car at all. Public transportation provides families with choices, and the more choices a community can offer families, the more attractive the area is as a place to live and do business.PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IS PRO-BUSINESSMany businesses in Oklahoma City are cut off from potential workers and shoppers because they are not located close to bus lines. This is generally true, for example, of businesses along the Northwest Expressway corridor, where there are thousands of jobs in retail businesses with no access to bus service. Those buses that don’t go there don’t bring any shoppers there to shop either. Employers need to know that their workers can get to work, irrespective of the price of gasoline, the vagaries of the weather, or the good will of fascist terrorists.
Many businesses in Oklahoma City are cut off from potential workers and shoppers because they are not located close to bus lines. This is generally true, for example, of businesses along the Northwest Expressway corridor, where there are thousands of jobs in retail businesses with no access to bus service. Those buses that don’t go there don’t bring any shoppers there to shop either. Employers need to know that their workers can get to work, irrespective of the price of gasoline, the vagaries of the weather, or the good will of fascist terrorists.PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IS PRO-SOCIAL JUSTICEThe most practical thing that Oklahoma City can do to help low income families is to fast track a public transportation system. Many low income households struggle to maintain an automobile. They buy old cars which are often unsafe on the roads and require many repairs. They often can’t afford insurance, so they buy an expensive month’s worth of insurance when it is time to register the car and then let it lapse. This puts them at risk of fines for driving without insurance. The rising price of gasoline is impacting low income households the worst. Even if people don’t care about the poor, they should care about this. Financial stress is a well-documented driver of divorce, violence against women and children, drug abuse and alcoholism, crime, and abortion. Less financial stress on low income households translates into major public benefits for everyone.
The most practical thing that Oklahoma City can do to help low income families is to fast track a public transportation system. Many low income households struggle to maintain an automobile. They buy old cars which are often unsafe on the roads and require many repairs. They often can’t afford insurance, so they buy an expensive month’s worth of insurance when it is time to register the car and then let it lapse. This puts them at risk of fines for driving without insurance. The rising price of gasoline is impacting low income households the worst. Even if people don’t care about the poor, they should care about this. Financial stress is a well-documented driver of divorce, violence against women and children, drug abuse and alcoholism, crime, and abortion. Less financial stress on low income households translates into major public benefits for everyone.PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION IS PRO-CHILDRENAbortion is a controversial issue, but one thing that people who are pro-choice and pro-life can agree on is that no woman should be coerced into having an abortion because of financial desperation. Public transportation helps low income women avoid this by eliminating their need to maintain an automobile in order to get to work and to shop.
Abortion is a controversial issue, but one thing that people who are pro-choice and pro-life can agree on is that no woman should be coerced into having an abortion because of financial desperation. Public transportation helps low income women avoid this by eliminating their need to maintain an automobile in order to get to work and to shop.PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION MEANS SAFE COMMUNITYOne important aspect of being a Safe Community is that the community can continue to function even in the face of extraordinary challenges. A public transportation system can insure the central Oklahoma economy against economic disasters caused by sudden cessation in oil imports due to war or catastrophic weather events and future increases in the price of fuels..
One important aspect of being a Safe Community is that the community can continue to function even in the face of extraordinary challenges. A public transportation system can insure the central Oklahoma economy against economic disasters caused by sudden cessation in oil imports due to war or catastrophic weather events and future increases in the price of fuels..ALTERNATIVE FUELS WILL NOT SAVE USAs the price of fossil fuels has increased, so has the buzz about the various “Energy Fairies” that are somehow going to fly in and save us all. But the fact remains: petroleum is the Queen of Fuels. Its Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) is the highest of any fuel on the planet. Consider this: the energy released by the explosion of one gram of TNT is 4,184 joules. The energy released by the explosion of one gram of gasoline is 50,000 joules. (http://www.eroei.com/ )
As the price of fossil fuels has increased, so has the buzz about the various “Energy Fairies” that are somehow going to fly in and save us all. But the fact remains: petroleum is the Queen of Fuels. Its Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) is the highest of any fuel on the planet. Consider this: the energy released by the explosion of one gram of TNT is 4,184 joules. The energy released by the explosion of one gram of gasoline is 50,000 joules. ( )One reason to be dubious about many of the alternatives to petroleum is that the Second Law of Thermodynamics dictates that all energy changes lose energy. That is, any time an energy is transformed (such as plant biomass into bio-fuel) energy is lost. In plain language, it takes more fuel to make a fuel than the energy value of the produced fuel..
World oil consumption in 2004 was 83.4 MILLION barrels per day. (International Petroleum Monthly, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/supply.html ). World oil demand in the 3rd quarter 2005 was at 83.08 million barrels/day. (International Petroleum Monthly, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/demand.html ).
When analyzing the potential of replacements for petroleum, four factors must be considered: What is the present production rate? How fast can it be scaled up? How far can it be scaled up? (Remember that world oil demand is one thousand barrels per second, 83 million barrels/day.) What is the energy returned for energy invested? The EROEI of petroleum is 10+. Nothing else approaches it.
One of the most popular Energy Fairies is hydrogen fuel. The common vision is that in a techno gee-whiz future, instead of pulling up to a convenience store and filling up on gasoline, we will just fill up on hydrogen and keep on motoring down the road. Besides the numerous technological challenges involved with consumer fill ups with liquid hydrogen, there is the simple fact that unlike petroleum, we don’t have hydrogen mines. All fuel hydrogen is made, and most of it is made from fossil fuels. Thus, if we want 1000 BTUs of work out of a given amount of hydrogen, we must invest MORE than 1000 BTUs to make the hydrogen in the first place. The difficulty this presents, in terms of replacing fossil fuels, should be obvious. Where do the “more than 1000 BTUs of processing energy” come from for each of those 1000 BTUs of hydrogen? And if we already have the “more than 1000 BTUs of processing energy”, why not just use it as a fuel rather than wasting some of it in conversion to hydrogen? Present production of hydrogen is very small. The Statistical Abstract of the United States does not report separate statistics for hydrogen fuel production, but instead combines it with “methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some domestic inputs to refineries” as “Other fuels” for a total production of 481,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. (2006 Statistical Abstract of the US, Table 889)
Biofuels are a bit better, in terms of energy returned on energy invested, but here we run up against another limit: the amount of arable cropland. One recent study estimated that if planted all of our present cropland to soybeans to make biodiesel, we would only be able to replace 12% of our annual petroleum usage. In 2002, biomass energy consumption was about 1.66 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. (Biomass Energy Research Association, http://www.bera1.org/Energy-water-05.html .)
It is not evident that ethanol fuel is any better. There are a number of studies which indicate that ethanol made from corn is an energy loser. The switchgrass option may be better, but it remains to be shown that our entire petroleum usage could be replaced by ethanol without significantly reducing United States food production, which of course would raise the specter of “food or fuel” throughout the world. Present US production of ethanol for fuel is 103,000 barrels/day. (2006 Statistical Abstract of the US, Table 892)
Thermal depolymerization (conversion of waste biomass to fuel) is another option often hyped as a replacement for oil, but at best it can supply only a small fraction of the nation’s fuel requirements. At present its production is so small it is not reported at all in the Statistical Abstract of the United States.
What about unconventional oil? The world has large deposits of unconventional oil – the tar sands of Alberta, Canada are often mentioned as a future source of fuel. And certainly, the future will get some fuel from the Canadian tar sands, but that isn’t going to be cheap 99 cent gasoline, it is going to be expensive gasoline. There are many technical challenges involved with ramping up that production (it uses boiling water to separate the oil from the sands), and it may not even be available for export to the United States, since the Communist Chinese have been acting as smart capitalists and buying up Canadian tar sands resources as often as they are able. In the year 2000, Canadian tar sands oil production was 650,000 barrels/day. http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/102spring2002_Web_projects/M.Sexton/ .
There may be a lot of oil in the total tar sands endowment, so we have been told by politicians, but the daily production figures will be another story, and what matters from our point of view is not the total ultimate production, but how many barrels can be produced every day. 2004 production came in at a million barrels a day, and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says that tar sands oil production will reach 2 million barrels/day by 2010. (Philadelphia Inquirer, 2 December 2004, “Emerging source of oil, not from wells, but sand”) The is a pretty slow growth rate for a resource which some say is going to somehow rescue us from expensive oil. We should also remember that these resources are in Canada, and Canadians drive automobiles too, so they may not be willing to sell us all of their oil shale production.
Coal can be turned into liquid fuel, this is not new technology, the Germans used it during World War II. But here again, the energy returned on energy invested is not as great as petroleum, so it won’t be a source of cheap gasoline such as we Americans are addicted to.
Another favorite Energy Fairy is increased domestic production. Even though US production has been declining since 1970-71, some people believe that somehow the production is going to come back. The point to off shore resources in Florida and California, and want to drill in Arctic wilderness areas. They imply that there is a lot of oil in these places, but if we drained all of the Arctic Wilderness area of its oil, the entire production run will amount to only a few months of our present consumption. And before we do this, we should also answer this question: if we exploit all the oil resources now, if we pump everything now, what we will leave our children? What will they do for fuel? Does anyone think our children will thank us for being greedy and depleting the entire United States endowment in fossil fuel resources in our generation?
Another popular alternative fuel source often discussed these days is oil shale. Oil shale has always been the “next big thing” in fuel production, but somehow it just never gets here. Shell Oil Company made waves recently with some talk about a new method of exploiting oil shale deposits, but they have yet to demonstrate that it is commercially feasible, and if commercially feasible, it will be at least ten years before anything starts dribbling into the market. And “dribble” it will, there won’t be any traditional Oklahoma gushers coming out of oil shale country. One proposed production facility would require nearly 40,000 tons of oil shale per day to produce 20,000 barrels of oil/day. http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/102spring2002_Web_projects/M.Sexton/ 20,000 barrels is 20 seconds worth of current oil production.
Some feel that somehow “technology will save us”, we will soon discover a new source of energy that we don’t even know about right now. This is a fine optimistic hope, but betting the economic prosperity of Oklahoma City on an Energy Fairy as nebulous as this one would be at best foolhardy.
All of these Energy Fairies added together, flying in and waving all of their Fairy Godmother Wands, are only going to amount to 10 to 20 percent of our present oil demand in the foreseeable future. All of them are more expensive to produce than conventional petroleum, they will be much more expensive at the pump, and they will not be available in the amounts we presently see from oil production. We ignore the geologic and scientific evidence about the energy realities of the 21st century to our dire peril.
Government has to be willing to make difficult decisions. Going forward into the economic future of central Oklahoma, no Energy Fairy is going to save us from the demands of the world marketplace for petroleum and natural gas and the dictates of the Laws of Thermodynamics. Our problem is that we are entirely geared up – our transportation systems, our built environment, our patterns of work, residence, and shopping – for a future of cheap gasoline fueling single family automobiles. We have no Plan B, no back-up plan, no understanding that the energy realities of the 21st century will be different than those of the 20th century. The future is expensive gasoline, expensive diesel, and expensive electricity.
Cities which recognize this reality and act accordingly will prosper in the 21st century. People, resources, and enterprise will flow to those cities. On the other hand, people, resources, and enterprise will flood out of and away from those cities that are stuck with 20th century transportation plans that don’t meet the energy challenges of the 21st century.
If the early city planners of Oklahoma City had remained mired in the horse and buggy era, Oklahoma City would quickly have become a one horse town. But they didn’t. They early on realized that the 20th century brought them new opportunities in transportation and they were quick to invest in trolleys system and commuter rail, in addition to the new automobile infrastructure that was beginning to develop. Going into the 21st century, the leadership of Oklahoma City must make a 21st century transportation system a priority. If instead our leaders choose to pander to sentiment, ignore scientific reality, refuse to do our duty to reduce our dependence upon fossil fuels, and fail to build a 21st century transportation system, then the economic future of Oklahoma City will certainly be somewhere in the neighborhood of a One Horse Town.
The choice is ours, and we will take an important step on that journey with the upcoming mayor’s race in Oklahoma City.
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