The dinosaurs are finished. Somebody notify the mammals.
I wish I had thought of the line I use as a headline for this post, but I didn’t. Credit belongs to Simon Johnson who writes for the Baseline Scenario in his post Bank Nationalization: A Viewer’s Guide. I think this is a good site to get a basic idea of the parameters of the present crisis to and read prognostications about the future of the various policy options on the table.
Most people are hoping for a “V” shaped recession — sharp downturn followed by quick upturn. The government propaganda tells us to expect a “U” shaped recession — with a longer “down” time than people want. The Baseline Scenario folks say that things look more like an “L” to them — sharp downturn, with no recovery in sight.
Everywhere, “bigness” is in trouble. The local poultry producer is doing find, Pilgrim’s Pride is in bankruptcy court. The confined animal feeding operation system is groaning under the strains of its own internal contradictions; local suppliers of pastured meats are ramping up production. The big banks aren’t loaning money, my local credit union (Weokie) has car loans at around 2% and they are making loans. I know someone who just got a car loan from them.
The dinosaurs once ruled the earth, but when their environment changed too radically, they could not survive. The tiny mammals, on the other hand, not only survived, they proliferated.
The same kind of economic and social evolution is going on even as we speak. The dinosaurs are dead, long live the mammals!