John Robb asked a provocative question in his Global Guerrillas blog yesterday — will Israel go after Iran’s oil production facilities? He argues that this is the only target in Iran that will accomplish what the Israelis will need to do ““ topple the present Iranian regime in favor of someone more , well, I guess in this case the unknown devil is preferred to the known devil. Although given the law of unintended consequences, they might be surprised at what they might end up with.
One of the Stratfor research “findings” (culled from the Wikileaks stockpile) is that Israel claimed its upcoming strike on Iran would be “catastrophic enough” to cause a regime change. This claim was made both to dissuade Iran from going forward with its program, physically eliminating their ability to move forward with the program, and persuade the US to act instead of Israel. Running through all of the potential scenarios, only one emerges that makes sense. A strike on Iranian oil facilities. A strike so devastating that it disrupts all of its oil production, currently at 4 million barrels a day.
More frightening, however, is the method he sees the Israeli’s using ““ a massive strike by drones launched from ships just outside the Persian Gulf. Robb has been writing extensively about the rapid development and use of drones in warfare, including the ability of “ordinary people” to make their own drones from off the shelf parts, which he says is pretty easy for someone who knows how to put stuff together. So one has to wonder what terrorists might do with such technology.
My thinking: lots and lots of ship and air launched drones. Drones that you can make in secret, easy to transport/launch, are inexpensive enough build in bulk, and extremely accurate. Likely, stripped down Harops.
. . . If this actually occurs, we are going to see drone development go into afterburner.
How long, I wonder, before an American city is attacked with drones?